Casino Royale

I can find no information anywhere which suggests that there has ever been a casino in Vanuatu yet there are claims that as part of the resort rebuild following Cyclone Pam, we can expect the Grand Opening of 'The Iririki' Casino next to the pool side bar on January 16, 2016.

All the way from the casino capital of the world, Las Vegas, these genuine chips are Vegas stamped and sure to create an atmosphere nothing short of the real deal.  These chips were brought out by the same company that keeps the Browlow Medal Votes secret.  Security like no other, they arrived at the Toleman house just in time for his birthday.  We all know Bryn Jones is desperate to win back the money he lost at last years Under 9 boys footy camp, Garry and Bronwyn are card sharks from way back and Shellie Storm is out to win at everything including poker.  But, don't be disappointed if cards and gambling are not your thing.  There is guaranteed to be a game to interest everyone including drinking games for Helen and Paula, dice games for those who are on holiday and have no interest in using their brain and even crown and anchor always guaranteed to please.  But, it's not about the dollars.   Maximum chip value is $5000 but early week outlay is low and unless you manage to lose money as quick as Bryn $50 should keep you playing for the week.  For those that don't get it there is an exchange rate.  $50 will get you thousands of dollars in chips.

In true Oceans Eleven style we can expect casino owner, Paul Toleman to be present in the casino most days but will he be able to be recruited by partners in crime, Mick and Jodie Kist to perform the simultaneous plan of robbing the Casino, the pool bar and the island ferry all at the same time.  As owner of the chips, no doubt Paul will be reluctant to be involved but when he works out how much money Zinnia and Mick Hardiman,  Dave Morris and Jenelle and Brett Hartman have put over the bar in one week he is sure to get involved.  There will be more cash sitting behind that bar than goes through Centrelink on dole day.   When Paul works out this will cover his trip expenses, no doubt he'll agree and his inside information will ensure its success.  Mick and Jodie will be pairing up having escaped the prison of football season team managers role and will be prepared to stay up late to ensure they can pull this off.  Expect all plans to be emailed to all recruits.

Mick and Jodie will be looking to recruit numerous colleagues and criminal specialists to get maximum results.  Simon Dalziel will be picked up as the young and talented pick pocket attracting no attention from anyone,  Richard Cowley will be the required conman with the ability to sell ice to eskimos, Ash Storm and Simon Mehegan will be the gifted pair of mechanics, and Scott James the electronics and surveillance expert will use his helicopters to ensure everything goes to plan.  Dave Spark will fly the helicopter if necessary. Larry Mehegan will be used as the decoy appearing like the innocent old man and he will work in company with Ian King to distract the Ferry driver and bar staff.  University Professor Andreas Fouras is likely to be sure to work out the logistics but expect him to send Helen to forward the ideas to the Kists.  Acrobats, Emma Jones and Sue King will be called upon to perform cartwheels and backflips as the ferry pulls away when the ploy is uncovered.  No doubt the two psychologists, Tina and Robyn on becoming aware of the plan will try and talk the crew out of it but they all know if they get this right this is a free trip for all.  At worst if will cover the four 13 year old kids who aren't covered in the kids eat free deal!!!

At the end of the day if all goes wrong what have we lost?  Nothing, we have a week of laughs, games and fun at the Iririki Casino....

The count down

Only 200 days to go people....Just Sayin!!!!

Currency

As the US dollar continues to disappear before our eyes there have been a number of people ask about currency and cost of living in Vanuatu, so I have tried to put a few things into perspective to help people make some decisions.

The native currency in Vanuatu is the VATU.  The most common exchange is AUS - VATU or US - VATU.  There are some places that will take Australian dollars but it can be a bit hit and miss.  ATM are readily available but the exchange rate will depend on each individual bank.  There is a Westpac Branch.  Like opening doors where you walk in and speak to someone behind a counter.  According to trip advisor the Money Exchange has the best exchange rate but you really have to be careful to make sure you don't get ripped with additional charges and locals just 'taking advantage'.  Either change your cash before you leave or use ATM is probably the safest way to go.    For rich people like Toley I don't think they take Diners or American Express!  For the rest of us 'normal' people most stores/tour providers will take Visa/Mastercard.

The other rumours flying around is the general cost of items being super high so I have researched the cost of some of the more common items that most of us can relate to as they stand in March 2015.

Today the exchange rate from AUS to VATU is $1.00 AUS = $84.39 VATU

A Cappuccino is $311 VATU which is the equivalent of $3.68 Australian

A medium Big Mac Meal is $561.28 which is $6.65 Australian.  In Australia the same meal is $7.95 (Well it was when I went through the drive through at 3am last weekend) unless you are in uniform.  I don't know if they will acknowledge Australian uniforms in Vanuatu but in case they do I have a few spares.  Unfortunately I don't think Ill have one to fit Stormy Senior so he might be left paying full price.

Domestic Beers (Tusker which for whatever it is worth Brett claims is actually pretty good) is
$400 VATU for 500ml which is equivalent to $4.74

Important Beers (including Australian imports mostly) are around $588 for 330ml which is around $6.61 Australian

A 330ml bottle of coke (staple diet of Mick Hardiman and Mick Kist) are around $183 VATU which is $2.17 Australian

A mid range three course dinner for two people in a local restaurant you can expect to pay $7000 VATU which is around $82.93

Essentially the cost of living is somewhat similar to the prices we pay at home.  Not as cheap as what many have come to find in Bali and Thailand but certainly not over the top.  I wonder if some have been confused with New Caledonia which is French and super expensive.  Trip Advisor actually suggests that for main meals its cheaper to eat at Iririki than to go onto the main land.  Generally the costs seem pretty compareable and no where near as expensive as purported generally.

How you wish to go about it is up to you.  You can rely on card, exchange before you leave or exchange when you get there.  Cash exchange is available at the resort.  Whilst this is a safer option rates can be a little higher.

Form Guide Race 5 TROPICAL GIFT

Well we've hit the second last race of the event which is mixed with a few proven top quality performers and some that surely can not be considered as little more than emergencies.  They are unlikely to start let alone finish.

BRYN JONES Bryn is another who has recently returned from an overseas birthday celebration and so must be considered an experienced campaigner knowing when to make the break in the pressure events.  Bryn himself is turning 40 two days before most of the camp arrive so he is likely to be looking to be in good form and ready to go hard.  Another who is at risk of going too hard too early given he is arriving with the Toleman camp a few days early.  Definitely consider Bryn a race favourite.  He will typically stick with beer and hold it well.  A stayer, he keeps the true effects under raps and will not let it be obvious that he is slowing.  Just a genuine nice guy.  He can match it with the best including his wife and stable partner, Emma except on the microphone.  He can't win that one.   He has proven his worth in this race at Summer Hartman events having found leaving a few beers pool side too hard to handle despite his roster having him supposed to be down the wharfs driving cranes!  There are two options for winning money from Bryn.  Either back him to win the race or alternatively take him on at Texas Hold'em or Acey Duecy where he has proven to be essentially 'lame' having done his dough at last years Under 9's father son footy trip.   Apparently what happens on the trips stays on the trip except for the fact Bryn lost his doh.  Believing Vanuatu is his chance to win his money back I'm tipping otherwise.  Take advantage. Bryn is travelling with his wife Emma and three kids, Kynan 10, Shayla 8 and Camden 6.  Kynan plays footy, cricket and basketball with Jett.

CAROL MEHEGAN Caz would be likely to be starting with odds out as far as 2000/1 for a place and even then you wouldn't waste 50 cents on this old nag but thats if the race is won on drinking alone.  Expect to be entertained by Caz.  Definitely not a drinker she is unlikely to bother walking to the barriers and if she made a start one drink and they'll bring out the green sheets, she'll be on her head after one shot.  Give her a shot glass full of water, call it Vodka and she is likely to appear pissed.  If laughs get someone across the line then maybe put some late money on her.  In 2014 she took Jett on a cruise on Rhapsody of the Seas.  Two days in and the two of them were banned from the swimming pool for 24 hours!  24 hours without pool entry for doing bombs!!! and no it wasn't Jett.  63 year old Nana got the 9 year old banned from the pool on a cruise ship in 40 degrees because SHE was doing bombs.  She'll regularly be found entertaining the kids.  Sometimes renowned for talking without thinking don't underestimate her ability to build amazing things.  She built a billy cart for two, complete with wheelbarrow wheels and a brake and use to take me 1.5 km to kinder on it just for shits and giggles.  She'd then happily walk it back up the hill home.  Yes we owned a car and no we didn't live in the sticks.  Middle of suburbia and don't think she didn't try to beat the cars as we raced down the road trying to win the chequered flag for 'first to kinder'.  She has retired from working as many times and Brett has retired from footy but is currently working full time as a medical receptionist for a cardiologist.  Caz is Jenelle's mum and guaranteed to provide laughs on this trip.

MICK KIST Mick might stand a chance to place if he sticks to 'men's' drinks but he has a preference for colored cocktails with umbrellas and artificial cherries.  I would be more inclined to back his lightweight wife, Jodie.  Organisation skills like no other you can expect Mick to be the one getting everyone in to their barriers.  Mick is an Environmental Health and Safety Officer.  Sounds like some kind of hippie but he works for a large construction company so I think he is actually pretty important.  Thats what he tells us anyway.  Mick was on the same Thailand trip as Bryn and Emma and could rely on experience to see him across the line.  If he starts to struggle on the track he may resort to claiming that the track doesn't 'meet environmental standards' purely to make sure he doesn't lose.  Fairly well trained he is likely to race most days and certainly worth backing for a place.  Mick will but up late with the best of them and is also inclined to send emails at 3am.  DO NOT give out your email address or phone number to Mick or Jodie.  They arrive in Jodie's name but the wording suggests often those late night email alert beeps are actually being sent by Mick.   Mick is stabling with his wife Jodie and their two boys, Jack 13 and Josh 10.  Josh plays footy, basketball and cricket with Jett.

MARK AMOS Mark could be a contender to take out the race depending on what the race is being run on.  With Scotch clearly his drink of choice his tastes are expensive and he is more likely to run out of money before he pulls up on the drinking.  Can definitely consume a few you can expect him to be one of the last to leave most nights.  A talker, 'have a chat' will give anyone on this trip a run for their money. What does he like to talk about?  Anything, everything, anything... Don't enter into a conversation unless you have at least an hour to spare.  A great guy with a big heart hell be looking to leave car crashes in Melbourne and give the Tropical Gift his best shot.  Knee high to a grasshopper he should meet the height requirements to get on the kids watersides at kids prices but may struggle on the inside of a Korf ball having grown up playing soccer.  Mark obviously works with Jenelle but has been a family friend for many years with Jett page boy in his daughters wedding some years ago.    Mark is stabling with his wife Lynn in the waterfront apartments but can be expected to be found where ever the action is on any given day.  There is some rumour they may bring their 7 year old grandson, Riley with them although this has not been confirmed.

HELEN FOURAS Helen is definitely my tip for this race.  Anyone who can neck a bottle of wine between Warranwood and Etihad and still provide directions for everyone else who can't find their way has got the runs on the board.  She is the life of every party and guaranteed to have that smile that lights up her whole face as soon as the wine comes out...at 7am.  Helen can appear drunker than she is due to that crazy giggle.  Mother of 5...Roula, Toula, Soula, Moula and Agapi she has both experience and stamina to take this out.  A fellow school mum none of us really know what Helen does for a job.  She claims administration for her husband Andreas but I think what she calls 'administration' is what the rest of us refer to as 'marital obligations'.  I'm not sure but I do guarantee she'll be first at the bar and last on the dance floor.  There is no chance of not having a great time when out with Helen and I have heard her described as everything from trooper, character, pisser and piss head.  I don't think she'll be paying a lot but expect a win.  Helen is stabling and probably doing 'administration' for her husband Andreas and their five kids,  Dimitri 16, Alex 14, Christina 11, Maria 9 and Sophia 4.  Jett goes to school with Maria.

Form Guide Race 4 PARADISE STAKES

It has been interesting putting the form guide together.  Although we are are using the excuse for the trip that it is my birthday, it has become obvious that I know very little about some of you.  Generally I realise I know little about the husbands and wives of those who are so important to me.  I have learnt so much about so many of you in preparing this guide.  I now know we have two Simons, two Daves, two Micks, two kinder childcare workers, four coppers, two psychologists, two book keepers, four self employed businessmen, four maintenance fitters, two electricians who don't work as electricians, two doctors and 26 drunks!  

The Paradise Stakes has some quality runners and don't for a moment think that there aren't any in this star field that couldn't match it with those running in the main race.

TINA TOLEMAN is the wife of the race favorite, Paul, but don't be expecting her to hide in his shadows.  Tina can hold her own and when it comes to entertaining there are none better.  Tina may be out of her comfort zone on a tropical island where people wait on her.  She is used to being the one entertaining guests and providing food spreads to die for.  Tina is a child psychologist so expect her to have her husband Paul, Brett Hartman and Mick Hardiman assessed and sorted out before the captain has switched off the fasten your seatbelt sign.  A little on the quiet side when you first meet her she will soon match it with the best after a few Kahlua and cokes and if the Margaritas come out then this filly has a real chance of crossing the line in front.  A definite participant, you can expect Tina to be involved in most of the shenanigans going on around the place.  Tina is stabling with her husband Paul, and two children Kaitlyn 13 and Billy 10.  Billy plays football and basketball with Jett.

PAULA DALZIEL Paula really should be the only filly in the main race and would be hard to back against in the Paradise Stakes.  Paula has years of experience and can put away bottles of wine quicker than a thief in liquorland.  Age has not slowed Paula down and she will match with the best whilst still walking a straight line and speaking sense but once she is horizontal that is it she is gone.  If this girl makes it to the end of the race she will win by a mile but if her race is over a longer distance she may pull up short particularly if the rate at which the wine is poured is slowed.  Paula is at her best after a few reds when the hair comes down and the giggles start.  Similar to Tina, Paula may struggle having others wait on her.  Paula inherited some awesome cooking skills from her mother. Working in a high pressure job in the insurance industry whilst juggling motherhood she is likely to be at her best on a week on Iririki.  Paula is guaranteed to smash her stable mate and husband Simon who are travelling with their two boys, Kane 10 and Jacob 7 who go to school and play footy with Jett.

DAVE SPARK Dave will hit the ground running from the second he arrives at the airport and will not pull up until he arrives home.  If this race is based on distance he will have it covered.  A successful engineer with his own business he thrives on time away with his family and is happy to consume whatever is on offer.  A couple of Margaritas and Dave is likely to entertain anyone happy to watch.  Recently acquiring his pilots licence he was keen to fly us to Vanuatu but after his performance on the Carnival Legend Cup I felt it safer for us to fly with a commercial company.  As a young guy Rum was his drink of choice but these days Margaritas and Cocktails seem to go down like water.  Dave will be up for a chat with anyone and sure to entertain all.  I anticipate a fast start and unless he decides to take a rest day he is definitely a contender in this race.  Dave is stabling with his wife Robyn and their daughter Chloe 6.  Chloe is also having a birthday while we are away.  Jenelle was Maid of Honour and Robyn and Dave's wedding back in the early 2000's.  Definitely worth an each way bet.

RICHARD COWLEY could take out this race without actually having a drink although he will drink anything in front of him.   He is particularly fond of a whisky, beer, red wine, shots, bourbon, vodka, margaritas, cocktails.... I think you get the picture.  The thing to remember here is he will behave the same whether he has a drink in his hand or not so don't think you a getting a head start because he appears drunk early.  Chances are he hasn't touched a drop and is just waiting to make his bolt.  Popular with the ladies he is equally popular with the men.  A ladies man and a mans man however on earth that even works I don't know.  Richard is a regular traveller for work so is likely to be getting in plenty of secret training that is going to leave the rest of us in his dust.  An electrician by trade he now works as a sales manager for a large multinational chemical company.  He did get me horrendously drunk on some crazy looking liquid with gold floaty bits which I was told was vodka but am now wondering whether I should have been reporting him to a terrorist hot line for possession of chemicals.  No idea what that stuff was but if you want to see out your race don't receive any from him.  Definitely a trained and experienced drinker I would probably consider Richard the favorite in this race.  Another not afraid to look like a dick if he is sure to get a laugh and may fall under the eye of child psychologist, Tina.  Richard is stabling with his wife Lyndall and their three children, Mia 10, Theo, 8 and Spencer 5.

SUE KING  Sue must not be underestimated and is probably the one to be on to make the big money likely to start as an unlikely favourite with the bookmakers .  A rare drinker you'll quickly know when she is on it because the Bailey's bottles will begin to diminish and she will suddenly be sitting there with the biggest smile her face.  Sue won't say a lot but will take it all in.  Be warned!  Nothing and I mean nothing will get past her.  The main reason Sue is unlikely to take out the race is because she will stop to assist any other competitor who slows, stops or shows any need for assistance.  You will never meet a more generous, caring or considerate person in your life and she will make sure every competitor gets over the line safely even if it costs her the race.  Unlikely to run every day she will make it a good one when she turns up and will always have a smile on her dile.  The Baileys may soon become Champagne, Cocktails or anything else on offer.  Sue is an amazing mother to four children two of whom are adults but she is choosing to travel with her two youngest daughters Maddy 14 and Montana 10 and stabling  with her husband, Ian.  Sue is a bookkeeper so expect the payouts to be correct for her races.

SCOTT JAMES is likely to line up in his barrier without even being noticed as everyone will be too busy being entertained by his wife.  These two can not be any better described other than chalk and cheese not that there is anything wrong with that they are not the only couple of this trip you could be described as 'opposites attract'.  Don't let Scott's quiet nature fool you though.  A highly intelligent man he knows exactly what is going on and if tactics are required to win a race then he could well take it out.  Not a huge drinker he is susceptible to an odd beer or wine but unlikely to get drunk.  Trust me, his wife Deb will make sure his share doesn't go to waste or yours either if you want to leave it lying around.  An electrician by trade Scott now pays the bills with a high tech plane website.  If there is a race on and you see a plane overhead expect Scott to make it home in front.  A true gentlemen he does have secret muscial skills and probably entertained most of us on a keyboard back in the good old 'Jooce' nightclub days.  Whoa one would suggest he knows how to outsmart a drunk if he spent his nights in that dodgy cave.  Scott is stabling with his wife Deb and twin sons, Matthew and Harrison 10. 

WET 'N' WILD

Well for those of you that love Wet 'n' Wild QLD and Waterbom Park, Bali you will be thrilled to bits to know that Vanuatu has its own 'Wet 'n' Wild!  It doesn't quite come with the same thrill rides that you are used to but you can expect to have a lot of laughs and fun rolling down hills and along water slides that come with no form of Workcover or OHS to oversight the safety measures!  No fun police here.  Essentially Wet 'n' Wild, Vanuatu is a Zorbing Park!

The park also has a giant water slide which I would probably describe more as an over size slip n slide and a human sling shot.  Wet 'n' Wild is less than 10 km from Iririki and at the bottom of the hill is The famous Vanuatu Beach Bar for those keen to get off the island for a few hours but not interested in being thrown around a 2.5 metre rubber ball rolling down a hill at some crazy rate.  

I have read a number of reviews and they all rave about how fun the Zorbing is.  Many spoke about being sceptical as to whether they were interested or were quite nervous but basically the reviews were all fantastic by all sorts at all ages.  I have attached a video file.  Not too sure whey the girl in the middle in the first ride has her face blurred out.  I can only assume she 'wasn't supposed to be there'!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fXt1WcXChsA

Form Guide Race 3 VANUATU CUP

Undoubtedly this is the main race  of the trip and probably the best payer if you are looking to make a quick buck.  The field is strong and while it will be condition dependant any of these quality performers could win on any day if things go their way.  Appreciation to my guest blogger for his assessment of my expectations to perform in the Vanuatu Cup.

ASH STORM Ash (Stormy) is an experienced campaigner who is proven on the track both at home and away.  A brick layer by trade he has both the physical strength and the laps on the training track to make him a top contender for the main race.  One of the biggest in the field he won't be scared off by those in the field who are a little smaller.  In fact he takes advantage of being the big fish in the little pond.  Quick to tell the world he won the batting average in the 2014/2015 season with 162 he fails to follow up with fact that the average age of the opposition was 12!  Stormy can consume large amounts of beer and is could be expected to take out the race whether over a long or short distance and with little or no rest days between events.  However, if you see him begin to mix drinks place your money elsewhere.  History demonstrates that once Stormy begins to mix his drinks he suffers from almost instantaneous 'food poisoning' likely to see him hanging his head over the barriers while the others run past.  Stormy Senior is stabling with his wife Shellie and two sons Liam 13 (Stormy Junior) and Jett's mate, Cam 10 (also Stormy Junior).

BRETT HARTMAN Hardy and Jenelle are the only stable pair to both feature in the main race.  Hardy would once have had the ability to lap others in this race and finish without so much as a sweat.  Previously the bookies would have struggled to get anyone to back against him.  However, these days he is going to be unlikely to cover any significant distance.  Race start time will be crucial but if if starts any time before 4pm you can guarantee hell be asleep by 7pm  and will have no chance of making the distance or backing it up the next day. Form indications were given away at the Carnival Legend Oaks all attended by fellow Vanuatu racers, Robyn Spark, Dave Spark, Simon Mehegan, Jenelle Hartman and some random.  The 6 were out on a  bender and security approached Hardy as the 'most sober' and 'sensible' one of the group telling them the random needed to leave!!!! Whoa really?  Clearly his form is lacking and not up to the quality of this field. Working in management at Cadbury he has somehow managed to combine the roll to include quality control which has affected his once svelte physique.  Expectations are he will train heavily in the lead up to the event to justify his selection in the main event.  Essentially  he claims he has retired from the big meets but then again he has also retired from football at least 14 times and is likely to back up with a 'one last race' in full John Farnham 'one last tour' form.  Don't count him out but realistically I think his only chance of winning this one is if he does a 'Stephen Bradbury'.  Hardy is stabling with Jenelle and Jett 10.

MICHAEL HARDIMAN Mick (Hardss) would once have won this event running backwards but these days with a recent career change his training has declined significantly.  Although stabling with his wife Zinnia, most of his training is with his boss, Jenelle, on the bitumen roads at 2am rather than the grass tracks.  Jenelle has rostered him with so much on call recently he has barely seen a pub since Christmas resulting in a loss of weight and form.    Don't be discouraged by his slight size though, this light weight can match it with the biggest and strongest, his give away that he has had too many is that he thinks he can sing and dance.  His signature move is some form of cross between the robot and the sprinkler.  Whatever it is, it is guaranteed to get a laugh and likely to distract him from the final post.  He wont be disappointed if he comes last so long as someone laughs at him.  With 6 months to get back on the track training I would expect his odds to come down significantly so don't count him out just yet.    Not into the fancy stuff beer is likely to see him through the distance. Hardss is travelling with his wife Zinnia and two kids Sahra 12 and Ky 10 and certain to be a favorite with both the ladies and the men.  Another copper who doesn't behave like one. 

JENELLE HARTMAN This star filly originally from the Mehegan stable but now firmly entrenched with the powerful Hartman stable will give another outstanding showing in this race, and must be judged as not only the bookies favourite, but a favourite with the fans. Recently, she has given stirring performances at the RMIT Graduation Stakes in December, The Carnival Legend Oaks in January and then in an international class field at the New Zealand Police Academy Cup in February. All this while encountering significant personal hardship of mothering a number of foals at both home and work. Her typical race strategy will involve Vodka and Cocktails at a steady pace early, before ramping up the pace towards the final bend and straight, and mixing in a healthy serve of dancing and karaoke, will unleash a devastating finishing sprint that no horse, giraffe, man, woman or child has any hope of matching. The undoubted star of this race meeting, those in attendance will talk about seeing her on this occasion for generations, becoming a ‘Where were you when Jenelle turned 40?’ moment, much like we speak about Phar Lap in 33’ and the unbeaten streak of Black Caviar.  Jenelle is obviously travelling with everyone on the trip but rooming with her husband Brett (Hardy) and son, Jett 10.

SIMON MEHEGAN Mogga is another to recently be left in a stable on his own and is making the most of the new found space and freedom to train hard.  His form in the Carnival Legend Oaks was strong and with Nana also on the trip to look after his two foals and you can expect big things.  Jenelle's older brother by a little more than 5 years, he has still got what it takes to match it with the up and comers and is capable of going long distances without obvious signs of fatigue.  No obvious race strategy he can be partial to an odd shot but will generally stick to the more standard beer or basic spirits.  His most likely distraction will be a stray filly in the stands which could be enough to steer him off the track.  Mogga works in middle management at Coca Cola explaining why him and Hardss the coke addict get along so well.  Mogga will keep quite early and make the late sprint but if you are looking for a reliable place certainty then this is the one to be on.  His base is strong and will only be strengthened by the increase in recent training. Mogga is travelling with his two daughters Belle 9 and Molly 7.

PAUL TOLEMAN Tolly has to be the favourite and even on current form I can't see him being beaten in the main race over 7 days.  However, there is a long time between now and the big race and given he is arriving 3 days earlier than the remaining starters he may well go hard too early.  A recent drop in weight may leave him unaware of the affect it will have on his ability to go long distances on hard tracks.  Although the affects of fatigue become obvious to most by the increased talking he will still move in straight lines and may not be obvious to all.  A businessman in a high stress position he will thrive on the relaxed atmosphere of Vanuatu and it may be the perfect location to see his best performance for some time.  There is some risk of disqualification as he may fail to move from the pool to the barriers if there is a card game in progress.  Tolly is travelling with his wife, Tina and two kids, Kaitlin 13 and Billy 10.  Would certainly have to be the favorite at this point.