Form Guide Race 3 VANUATU CUP

Undoubtedly this is the main race  of the trip and probably the best payer if you are looking to make a quick buck.  The field is strong and while it will be condition dependant any of these quality performers could win on any day if things go their way.  Appreciation to my guest blogger for his assessment of my expectations to perform in the Vanuatu Cup.

ASH STORM Ash (Stormy) is an experienced campaigner who is proven on the track both at home and away.  A brick layer by trade he has both the physical strength and the laps on the training track to make him a top contender for the main race.  One of the biggest in the field he won't be scared off by those in the field who are a little smaller.  In fact he takes advantage of being the big fish in the little pond.  Quick to tell the world he won the batting average in the 2014/2015 season with 162 he fails to follow up with fact that the average age of the opposition was 12!  Stormy can consume large amounts of beer and is could be expected to take out the race whether over a long or short distance and with little or no rest days between events.  However, if you see him begin to mix drinks place your money elsewhere.  History demonstrates that once Stormy begins to mix his drinks he suffers from almost instantaneous 'food poisoning' likely to see him hanging his head over the barriers while the others run past.  Stormy Senior is stabling with his wife Shellie and two sons Liam 13 (Stormy Junior) and Jett's mate, Cam 10 (also Stormy Junior).

BRETT HARTMAN Hardy and Jenelle are the only stable pair to both feature in the main race.  Hardy would once have had the ability to lap others in this race and finish without so much as a sweat.  Previously the bookies would have struggled to get anyone to back against him.  However, these days he is going to be unlikely to cover any significant distance.  Race start time will be crucial but if if starts any time before 4pm you can guarantee hell be asleep by 7pm  and will have no chance of making the distance or backing it up the next day. Form indications were given away at the Carnival Legend Oaks all attended by fellow Vanuatu racers, Robyn Spark, Dave Spark, Simon Mehegan, Jenelle Hartman and some random.  The 6 were out on a  bender and security approached Hardy as the 'most sober' and 'sensible' one of the group telling them the random needed to leave!!!! Whoa really?  Clearly his form is lacking and not up to the quality of this field. Working in management at Cadbury he has somehow managed to combine the roll to include quality control which has affected his once svelte physique.  Expectations are he will train heavily in the lead up to the event to justify his selection in the main event.  Essentially  he claims he has retired from the big meets but then again he has also retired from football at least 14 times and is likely to back up with a 'one last race' in full John Farnham 'one last tour' form.  Don't count him out but realistically I think his only chance of winning this one is if he does a 'Stephen Bradbury'.  Hardy is stabling with Jenelle and Jett 10.

MICHAEL HARDIMAN Mick (Hardss) would once have won this event running backwards but these days with a recent career change his training has declined significantly.  Although stabling with his wife Zinnia, most of his training is with his boss, Jenelle, on the bitumen roads at 2am rather than the grass tracks.  Jenelle has rostered him with so much on call recently he has barely seen a pub since Christmas resulting in a loss of weight and form.    Don't be discouraged by his slight size though, this light weight can match it with the biggest and strongest, his give away that he has had too many is that he thinks he can sing and dance.  His signature move is some form of cross between the robot and the sprinkler.  Whatever it is, it is guaranteed to get a laugh and likely to distract him from the final post.  He wont be disappointed if he comes last so long as someone laughs at him.  With 6 months to get back on the track training I would expect his odds to come down significantly so don't count him out just yet.    Not into the fancy stuff beer is likely to see him through the distance. Hardss is travelling with his wife Zinnia and two kids Sahra 12 and Ky 10 and certain to be a favorite with both the ladies and the men.  Another copper who doesn't behave like one. 

JENELLE HARTMAN This star filly originally from the Mehegan stable but now firmly entrenched with the powerful Hartman stable will give another outstanding showing in this race, and must be judged as not only the bookies favourite, but a favourite with the fans. Recently, she has given stirring performances at the RMIT Graduation Stakes in December, The Carnival Legend Oaks in January and then in an international class field at the New Zealand Police Academy Cup in February. All this while encountering significant personal hardship of mothering a number of foals at both home and work. Her typical race strategy will involve Vodka and Cocktails at a steady pace early, before ramping up the pace towards the final bend and straight, and mixing in a healthy serve of dancing and karaoke, will unleash a devastating finishing sprint that no horse, giraffe, man, woman or child has any hope of matching. The undoubted star of this race meeting, those in attendance will talk about seeing her on this occasion for generations, becoming a ‘Where were you when Jenelle turned 40?’ moment, much like we speak about Phar Lap in 33’ and the unbeaten streak of Black Caviar.  Jenelle is obviously travelling with everyone on the trip but rooming with her husband Brett (Hardy) and son, Jett 10.

SIMON MEHEGAN Mogga is another to recently be left in a stable on his own and is making the most of the new found space and freedom to train hard.  His form in the Carnival Legend Oaks was strong and with Nana also on the trip to look after his two foals and you can expect big things.  Jenelle's older brother by a little more than 5 years, he has still got what it takes to match it with the up and comers and is capable of going long distances without obvious signs of fatigue.  No obvious race strategy he can be partial to an odd shot but will generally stick to the more standard beer or basic spirits.  His most likely distraction will be a stray filly in the stands which could be enough to steer him off the track.  Mogga works in middle management at Coca Cola explaining why him and Hardss the coke addict get along so well.  Mogga will keep quite early and make the late sprint but if you are looking for a reliable place certainty then this is the one to be on.  His base is strong and will only be strengthened by the increase in recent training. Mogga is travelling with his two daughters Belle 9 and Molly 7.

PAUL TOLEMAN Tolly has to be the favourite and even on current form I can't see him being beaten in the main race over 7 days.  However, there is a long time between now and the big race and given he is arriving 3 days earlier than the remaining starters he may well go hard too early.  A recent drop in weight may leave him unaware of the affect it will have on his ability to go long distances on hard tracks.  Although the affects of fatigue become obvious to most by the increased talking he will still move in straight lines and may not be obvious to all.  A businessman in a high stress position he will thrive on the relaxed atmosphere of Vanuatu and it may be the perfect location to see his best performance for some time.  There is some risk of disqualification as he may fail to move from the pool to the barriers if there is a card game in progress.  Tolly is travelling with his wife, Tina and two kids, Kaitlin 13 and Billy 10.  Would certainly have to be the favorite at this point.